A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and statistical modeling.
Just eight weeks prior that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, looking confused as his coach admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club endured a six-game winless run, the question was if his displays were an indicator or a cause for the side's more general malaise.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. As the England international drilled in his second to reclaim the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his jacket, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , after failing to win their opening six fixtures, now sit only three points off table-toppers Arsenal.
It remains a rather hard question to address. Past precedent, a general sense of the club, indicates otherwise. Additionally, their performances haven't been wholly dominant during this run, while the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the team had an xG notably superior than the opposition. For a side who have put together ten consecutive victories, they seem curiously susceptible – but currently the tight outcomes are falling their way.
Their recent policy appears to be to trade blows with the opposition and then rely on Rogers to bail them out with a couple of precise efforts. It happened against Leeds, it occurred in London, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike came from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the upright from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United registered a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have secured their last eight victories by a single goal. The defence has been breached in nearly all of those fixtures.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront in the near future. Rogers, surely, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
Could it be an alternative path whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs might still rediscover their best form.
Maybe within that lies the seeds of a title challenge, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on Morgan Rogers.
Yet, this is a surprise. Few believed the team would be in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt two months ago, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be at the forefront of a championship pursuit while looking like a crucial Three Lions star.
This remarkable period should be enjoyed for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the match-winner positioned himself before the Villa faithful at the final whistle orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. As he deserves to. These spells do not happen often and should be relished.
A seasoned sports analyst with over a decade of experience in betting markets and statistical modeling.